Nickel Sulphate Prices Expected to Remain Stable; High Stainless Steel Shipment Pressure [SMM Nickel Morning Brief]

1.8Nickel Morning Briefing

Nickel Sulphate:

On January 7, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,391 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 26,000-26,940 yuan/mt, and the average price rising slightly compared to the previous day.

Cost side, the transaction coefficients for high-grade nickel matte and MHP remained stable recently, while LME nickel prices rebounded slightly today to $15,200/mt (Ni contained), slightly widening spot cost support. Demand side, precursor plants have mostly completed nickel salt stockpiling for January, leading to weak market inquiry activity. Supply side, salt plants maintained their quotation coefficients on par with the market, with sentiment to stand firm on quotes prevailing. Currently, finished product inventories at salt plants remain at low levels. Overall, under the backdrop of weak demand from both buyers and sellers, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):

On January 7, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 935 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, and with traditional smelters facing expanded losses, production is expected to weaken. In Indonesia, raw material inventories at NPI smelters remain sufficient, and some smelters are maintaining partial profitability. The weak demand for high-grade nickel matte persists, and the phenomenon of converting high-grade nickel matte to high-grade NPI continues, with Indonesian production maintaining expected growth. Demand side, stainless steel mills have entered a seasonal maintenance period, leading to weaker production. Demand for NPI from steel mills has declined MoM, and top-tier enterprises have already signed a large number of long-term contracts for raw materials, resulting in weaker spot order demand. However, current cost support for NPI remains firm, and high-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable with a weak trend.

Stainless Steel:

On January 7, stainless steel saw a slight increase during the night session, but spot prices remained stable at low levels. Since the beginning of January, market sentiment has been persistently negative. Steel mill production has not decreased, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to significant sales pressure across all stainless steel categories. In the morning, 304 cold-rolled in Wuxi was quoted at 12,850-13,000 yuan/mt, 304 HRC in Wuxi at 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, 316L cold-rolled in Wuxi at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt, 201J1 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,400-7,700 yuan/mt, and 430 cold-rolled in Wuxi at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 12,865 yuan/mt, with Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums at 155-305 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = mill edge + 170 yuan/mt).